𝙊𝙋𝙄𝙉𝙄𝙊𝙉:
Is 𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙣𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙖𝙡 𝙤𝙘𝙚𝙖𝙣 𝙛𝙧𝙚𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩 𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙨 returning to normal?
Is the sun rising… or are we heading straight into a perfect storm?
During the peak of the pandemic (2021), shipping a 40-foot container from Asia to Europe or the U.S. could cost more than $10,000 USD. Today, according to the World Container Index (WCI) by Drewry https://www.drewry.co.uk, that same route now ranges between $2,100 – $3,600 USD, depending on the corridor.
The drop is clear (2021 vs 2025):
- 👉 Shanghai – New York: from $11,250 (2021) → $3,611 (2025) → (-) 67.9%
- 👉 Shanghai – Los Angeles: from $9,600 → $2,617 → (-) 72.7%
- 👉 Shanghai – Rotterdam: from $10,600 → $2,312 → (-) 78.1%
Even compared to one year ago, rates have fallen 30% to 40% across most key routes.
Data via WCI (Drewry Index)
What could be behind this sharp decline?
- Overcapacity: Shipping lines expanded fleets in 2022, and now there are more ships than cargo.
- Moderate demand: Inflation, high interest rates, and lower global consumption have softened trade flows.
- End of port congestion: Supply chain normalization has erased many extra charges.
- Tariff wars: Carriers are engaged in aggressive price competition to defend market share.
- Less structural pressure: The post-COVID logistics model no longer demands urgent freight handling.
What role could global protectionism and tariffs play?
While not the direct cause of the current price drop, rising tariffs and trade barriers worldwide could influence prices through:
- Reduced international trade volume
- Incentives for nearshoring and supply chain fragmentation
- Changes in trade routes, shorter distances, and downward pressure on long-haul lanes
But beware: if protectionism continues to escalate, it could trigger:
- Greater logistical fragmentation
- Fleet diversions to inefficient routes
- Unpredictable volumes and contract volatility
What is now a price drop could become volatility and unpredictable costs if global trade stability is not preserved.
Conclusion:
This is an opportunity for exporters and operators:
Improve margins, boost competitiveness, and negotiate better logistics terms. But don’t get complacent — the global chessboard is still shifting… and with it, the cost of moving the world.
